As we approach the third month since the launch of Precog, we want to take a moment to express our gratitude to our miners, validators, and the entire Bittensor community for your ongoing support. Your contributions have been instrumental in driving our progress.
We’re excited to introduce our April Roadmap, outlining key milestones and updates. We’re eager to share the progress we’ve made and the next steps in our journey, and we look forward to your continued involvement as we build and evolve together.
In our February Roadmap we focused on two short term objectives:
Iterating on our initial design to prevent exploitive participants and reward authentic miners. For the following reasons, we’re confident that our mining activity has been strong and has effectively avoided the problems of some past forecast subnets:
- Miner competition has proven to be fierce, which has resulted in progressively better forecasts over time for Precog (more specific information on this later). Precog for instance has had 1844 Miner registrations since inception, while other subnets with similar registration dates averaged about 650 registrations during the same period.
- We have been spending time analyzing miner behavior and performance in response to our recent extension of the rolling average window used to calculate rewards. The longer window visibly reduced volatility in individual miner rankings over several evaluation periods.
- So far we haven’t detected any clear indications of disingenuous or exploitative behavior, at least that can be differentiated from miners we know are earnest, at a statistical level. We’ve continued to see a steady stream of registrations, which should punish strategies focused on registering many miners with a random distribution of predictions. We continue to investigate exploits and will consider adjustments to preserve the integrity of the subnet if anything anomalous is detected. When resources allow we intend to publish the null results of our investigation
- Additionally we’ve seen the distribution of miners per IP address and per cold key address continue to become less concentrated:
Data exports and visualizations to benchmark Precog’s value
- We delivered on an initial MVP here and received feedback from various subnet stakeholders to iterate into the current version.
- This now allows ecosystem participants to easily see the last 24 hours of forecasts and drill down to specific miners to examine their performance.
- We plan to further iterate on this initial design to add additional, useful information on the subnets performance over time.
- We’d like to thank the participants in discord and other communication channels for your continued feedback and support as we continue to build these visualizations and data sources.
Next Short Term Roadmap Focus:
Report Highlighting Precog’s output value
- We will soon release a research article demonstrating the intelligence and value of subnet forecasts, by showing results of a simplistic trading strategy relying only on point predictions and BTC price at prediction time as input. While data is limited, the results demonstrate a consistent improvement over a no-trading or holding baseline across several price regimes.
Adding research trading strategy to the dashboard
- The Dashboard currently gives a decent birds eye view of the value of forecasts over the past 24 hours, but it needs to do a better job showing why this is valuable, how it can be used, and how we intend to monetize this to create an economy around Precog. We will add the results of the research report strategy to the dashboard to keep our ecosystem better informed in real time.
Medium Term Roadmap Focus:
After highlighting the value in Precog’s outputs via the near term research report and updated dashboard mentioned above, the medium term focus will be focused on:
Enable enhanced data access for a certain subsegment of miners (exact criteria to be determined later).
- The enhanced data set includes substantially more data on metrics like: derivatives funding rates, open interest, liquidations, and volatility. Supporting miners with more robust data will elevate forecasting quality even further.
Enabling access to Precog forecasts via an api to users within Bittensor and outside of the ecosystem.
- Revenue generated through demand of the data accessed by the API will be used to support subnet operations and further incentivize miner excellence by raising the value of Alpha earned.This creates a monetization mechanism that will flow back to the subnet participants and create a flywheel for success. Coin Metrics has a network of 25,000+ email subscribers and 95,000+ social media followers that will be made aware of the API.
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