In this issue of Coin Metrics’ State of the Network, we analyze Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical performance around prior elections, dive into market movements and examine Polymarket data driven by 2024 elections.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin has historically seen substantial post-election gains, though with diminishing returns each cycle: ~8000% (2012), ~1750% (2016), and ~600% (2020). They have typically aligned with Bitcoin halvings and major Federal Reserve policy shifts, creating a confluence of catalysts that reduce market uncertainty.
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Bitcoin’s realized volatility has historically increased around U.S. elections, typically remaining elevated for approximately 30 days post-election.
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Polymarket odds for the 2024 race have seen dramatic swings: from an even split in October, to a 34% Trump lead, and most recently to 62% Trump vs 38% Harris. Trading patterns suggest significant international participation, with peak trading volumes occurring between 01:00-04:00 ET.
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As we head into the elections, trusted spot volumes for majors (BTC, ETH, SOL) are double their recent average at $19.7B, while Bitcoin futures open interest has reached near-record levels of $34B.
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