In this edition of Coin Metrics’ State of the Network, we’ll explore how Bitcoin has behaved across different market environments, highlighting the catalysts and conditions behind periods of low correlation with traditional assets like equities or gold. We also examine how shifts in monetary regimes have influenced Bitcoin’s performance, assess its sensitivity to the broader market, and contextualize its volatility profile relative to other major assets.
Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s correlations with equities and gold have recently fallen near zero, suggesting a unique phase of decoupling typically seen during major market catalysts or shocks.
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While Bitcoin’s correlation to interest rates is generally low, shifts in monetary regimes have influenced its behavior, with the strongest negative correlation to rate hikes appearing during the 2022–2023 tightening cycle.
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Despite its reputation as “digital gold,” Bitcoin has historically exhibited higher beta and stronger upside sensitivity to equities, especially during bullish macro conditions.
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Bitcoin’s realized volatility has steadily declined since 2021, now trending closer to that of popular technology stocks and reflecting a maturing risk profile.
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