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What should we expect from Bitcoin’s block size in the coming years?

tl;dr: under full SegWit adoption you should expect blocks in the 1.6-2 mb range, with larger outliers. 

How big will Bitcoin blocks get under reasonable assumptions? This investigation began with the simple realization that Bitcoin had recently hit an all time high in its average block size over a 24 hour period, at 1.20 mb.

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