The Signal & The Nonce

This paper introduces a methodology for determining the market share of every major Bitcoin mining machine, or ASIC, by analyzing nonce patterns and incorporating data sourced from real-world ASICs. Using novel data produced by our analysis, we can generate estimates to Bitcoin’s electricity consumption and network efficiency with far greater accuracy over the existing body of research. By knowing the ASIC distribution over time, we can estimate not only the average efficiency, which is crucial for miners’ competitiveness but also the e-waste generated by Bitcoin mining, a contentious issue in its own right. This approach paves the way for us to extract new insights into some of Bitcoin’s most critical issues.